2021

Three’s a Crowd? Podemos, Ciudadanos and Vox:
The End of Bipartisanship in Spain

José Rama, Guillermo Cordero and Piotr Zagorski

 

Frontiers in Political Science (In press)

 

The traditional Spanish imperfect bipartisanship and the alternation in power emerged in the early 80s between the centre-left PSOE and the conservative PP has shifted towards a multiparty system after the emergence of three new parties. At first, as a result of the economic and political representation crises, Podemos (We Can), emerged at the 2014 European Parliament elections. This left-wing populist party managed to grow rapidly among the dissatisfied voters, reaching the third electoral position in the 2015 general elections. In the same contest, the liberal centre party Ciudadanos (Citizens) became the fourth political force boosted, among other reasons, by notorious corruption scandals involving high-rank PP’s officials and the process of secession in Catalonia. Finally, driven by the same secession process and thanks to the removal from office of PP’s Prime Minister after a motion of no confidence, the support for the populist radical right Vox also experienced a boost, winning 15 percent of the seats in Parliament in the general elections of November 2019. In this paper, we describe the contexts which facilitated the irruptions of these new parties, analyse their impact on the Spanish party system and study their current voters’ profiles.  

[Link to the published version]

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Give Me Your Least Educated. Immigration, Education
and Support for Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe

Guillermo Cordero, Piotr Zagorski and José Rama 

 

Political Studies Review (In press)

 

This article deepens the analysis of the effects of immigration on the vote for Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) in Europe, focusing on education levels of both natives and immigrants. By analysing the immigrant population in 101 regions from 11 European countries we show that in contexts with a large immigrant presence, the low educated voters tend to support PRRPs to a greater degree than the those more educated. However, when the ratio of skilled immigrants is high, also the more educated population tends to support these parties. Hence, our analysis adds insight into the relationship between immigration, education and PRRP voting, highlighting the need of focusing at lower levels of aggregation and combining the characteristics of both foreign-born and host populations.

[Link to the published version]

2nd Quartile

Democratic, yet representative? Selecting MPs in a Multilevel Polity

Santiago Pérez-Nievas, Marta Paradés, Guillermo Cordero and Xavier Coller

 

In: Politicians in Hard Times, Edited by Xavier Coller and Leonardo Sánchez-Ferrer (Palgrave)

 

MPs play an essential role in the quality of representation in democracies. However, there is little evidence available on how political parties select them and the impact of that process on MPs’ profiles. This chapter analyses two original surveys conducted in 2018 on samples of Spanish national, regional and local MPs, to respond to a number of key questions. Given their different political relevance: are parties more exclusive (less internally democratic) in how they select their representatives when this selection is for the national parliament than when it is for local councils or regional chambers? Do these mechanisms of selection of representation generate distinct MP social profiles? In this chapter we show that primaries generate an improvement in the descriptive representation of the population’s younger and less educated groups. However, this inclusive method of selection produces unbalanced levels of gender representation, especially for women with family responsibilities. Interestingly, these differences fade at the local level.

[Link to the published version]

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Representing the People: Latin American Councilors and
Their Pathway to Power and Political Representation in Spain

Guillermo Cordero, Juan Carlos Triviño and Marisol Escobar

 

American Behavioral Scientist (Published online https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764221996747) 

 

Latin Americans are one of the most relevant migrant minorities in Spain. In this article, we analyze their political representation at the local level by describing how councilors of Latin American councilors perceive three stages on their “pathway to power”: the selection method most frequently used by them to become electoral candidates, their ranking as candidates in the Spanish closed and blocked lists system, and their view of political representation once in office. The article contributes to a better understanding of the political incorporation of sizable minority groups in politics in recent immigration countries by implementing a mixed method strategy with survey data and in-depth interviews. The results show how candidates of Latin American origin are included in electoral lists following more participative ways of internal selection than their native-born counterparts, who are more frequently appointed by a party leader. Despite this, those who eventually get elected perceive that they have been ranked in “unsafe positions” of the electoral lists, and therefore with no guarantee of being appointed. Interestingly, once in office, councilors of Latin Americans perceive that they represent immigrants to a lesser degree, compared with their native-born counterparts.

[Link to the published version]

2nd Quartile

A Tale of two cities: the Socio-political Integration
of Latino Immigrants in Spain and in the US

Santiago Pérez-Nievas, Guillermo Cordero y Marie Mallet-García

 

American Behavioral Scientist (Published online https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764221996750

 

This special issue addresses the need for cross-national analyses on immigrant integration. The articles in this issue examine the integration processes of Latino immigrants in the United States and in Spain in several aspects—socioeconomic, legal, educational, and political—and through varied methods—quantitative as well as qualitative—contributing to the literature in several ways. By focusing on the same ethnic group across different contexts, it provides a thorough comparison of the mechanisms at play in their integration processes. It emphasizes the context-specific and culture-specific elements that most affect immigrants’ integration. This special issue gathers nine articles that offer complementary perspectives on the integration of Latino immigrants in Spain and the United States.

[Link to the published version] 

2nd Quartile

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Killing Two Birds with One Stone? The Inclusion of
Foreign-Origin Women in Spanish Local Party Lists 2011-2015

Marisol Escobar, Santiago Pérez-Nievas y Guillermo Cordero

 

Migraciones (In Press) 

 

This article analyses the descriptive representation of immigrant-origin women in two local Spanish elections. On the basis of the influence of the political opportunity structures and the role played by political parties, we quantify their presence in party lists and their degree of success in becoming councilwomen. Using the APREPINM database we compare their levels of representation across different immigrant-origin minorities and the degree of gender disparity within each group. Our results show that women originating from the EU and Latin-America benefit from a greater access to party lists than their male counterparts and their female peers from other groups. But when it comes to be elected as councilwomen, only Latin-American women keep this comparative advantage. The Project ‘¿Ayuntamientos Plurales? Representación Política de los Inmigrantes en España’, which received a research grant from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Spain), co-funded with European Union ERDF funds (European Regional Development Fund) with reference CSO-2016-79540-R.

[Link to the published version] 

3rd Quartile

"Autorretrato del Concejal Español

Guillermo Cordero y Santiago Pérez-Nievas

 

Anuario de Derecho Municipal (In Press) 

 

En este artículo llevamos a cabo una detallada descripción del perfil del concejal en España a partir de datos de una encuesta propia realizada entre 2018 y 2019 a representantes locales de toda España. Con 1.250 respuestas obtenidas, los resultados muestran que los partidos presentan claras diferencias en el modo de confeccionar sus listas electorales, así como en el perfil resultante de dicha selección. Mientras que en los partidos más jóvenes el porcentaje de concejales elegidos mediante primarias es mucho más alto y el perfil medio es de menor edad, feminizado y con niveles de estudios diversos, en el PP la forma de selección es menos participativa, resultando en concejales de mayor edad, en su mayoría hombres y con niveles de estudios superiores. En el PSOE es algo más común la presencia de concejales elegidos mediante formas de selección colegiada, con perfiles de mayor edad, aunque feminizados y con niveles educativos diversos. Nuestros datos también muestran importantes conexiones entre los partidos en el ámbito local y el tejido asociativo, sobre todo en el caso de los concejales de partidos de izquierda: sindicatos y asociaciones de mujeres en el caso del PSOE; asociaciones de derechos humanos, ecologistas y vivienda en las confluencias. En los partidos de derecha son más comunes los contactos con asociaciones de empresarios y organizaciones relacionadas con la ayuda y la caridad. Por último, en el artículo se lleva a cabo una descripción de las actitudes y valores de los concejales españoles. Más allá de las diferencias esperables en el marco de la ideología y el nacionalismo, encontramos que existe una mayor heterogeneidad ideológica en distintas Comunidades Autónomas entre los concejales de Ciudadanos y del PP que entre los concejales de partidos de izquierda.  

[Link to the published version] 

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Young and Temporary: Youth Employment Insecurity
and Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Europe

Piotr Zagorski, José Rama y Guillermo Cordero

 

Government and Opposition (Published online doi:10.1017/gov.2019.28) 

 

The recent success of right-wing populist parties (RPPs) in Europe has given rise to different explanations. Economic factors have proven to be significant mainly at the aggregate level. As for the individual level, it has been argued that the so-called ‘losers of globalization’ – the less educated and less skilled, profiles with higher job insecurity- – are more prone likely to support RPPs. Nevertheless, RPPs perform strikingly well in countries less affected by the Great Recession, gathering high levels of support among profiles not considered the losers of globalization. Moreover, the effect of age on support for RPPs’ support is not clear, as, on the one hand, the young are better educated and skilled, but, on the other, they suffered more the effects of the economic crisis more. To address this puzzle, we focus on the impact of unemployment and employment insecurity among the youth on voting for RPPs’ voting in 17 European countries. We find that youth support for RPPs can be explained by the precariousness of the youth labour market.

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript] 

2nd Quartile

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2019

La Oferta Partidista en Andalucía (1982-2015). Competición sin Alternancia.

Guillermo Cordero, Carlos Fernández y José Rama

 

In En Busca del Poder Territorial. Cuatro Décadas de Elecciones Autonómicas en España. Edited by: Braulio Gómez, Laura Cabeza and Sonia Alonso (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, CIS). 

 

Andalucía es la única comunidad autónoma española en la que no se ha producido alternancia en el gobierno. Desde 1978 y hasta las últimas elecciones autonómicas celebradas en 2015, el PSOE ha sido el único partido en ostentar la Presidencia de la Junta. El análisis sistemático de los programas electorales de dicho partido y de los que han obtenido representación en el Parlamento de Andalucía entre 1982 y 2015 nos ha permitido descubrir sus principales pautas de comportamiento y estrategias políticas alrededor de diferentes ejes.

[Link to the published version

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Las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo, 2009 y 2014:
El Crecimiento de los Partidos Eurocríticos y Euroescépticos

Guillermo Cordero, José Ramón Montero y José Rama

 

In Política de la Unión Europea: crisis y continuidadEdited by: Cristina Ares y Luis Bouza (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, CIS). 

 

Las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo (PE) de mayo de 2014 tuvieron como eslogan la frase de This time it’s different. Pocas veces un eslogan hizo tanta justicia a la realidad. Si las elecciones anteriores, celebradas en 2009, fueron saludadas por los observadores políticos como extraordinarias, las de 2014 han sido unánimemente caracterizadas como excepcionales. En 2009, las elecciones abarcaron simultáneamente por primera vez a 27 Estados-miembros, seleccionaron a 736 diputados de un Parlamento que debería representar a más de 386 millones de electores y llegaron tras la paralización de la denominada Constitución Europea.

[Link to the published version

2018

Democratizing Candidate Selection: New Methods, Old Receipts?

Guillermo Cordero and Xavier Coller (eds.)

 

Palgrave Macmillan

 

The recent economic crisis has had profound consequences on politics around the world: Higher levels of volatility and disaffection, the emergence of new parties, and the new relevance of formerly minor parties. At the same time, there has been an upsurge in the demand for more participative ways of decision-making in politics channelled through social movements and individuals in different countries. In reaction, some parties have introduced changes in their internal organization (via intra-party democracy), particularly related to the selection of candidates for public office. In this monograph, we first explore the trends and challenges of these new methods of selection; secondly, we analyse how the internet is increasingly being used as a selection tool; and thirdly, we evaluate some of the relevant consequences related to  representation, party cohesion, party centralization and corruption, among others.    

[Link to the publication]

The Selection of Politicians in Times of Crisis

Xavier Coller, Guillermo Cordero and Antonio Jaime-Castillo (eds.)

Routledge

 

This book is presented as the first deep, comparative study of the effects of the political crisis on candidate selection covering a large number of countries. Using an integrated framework and unified strategy, it examines how new relevant political actors are really implementing participative ways of candidate selection, whether they are being innovative in their political environments and the extent to which traditionally mainstream parties are changing selection procedures to have more open and inclusive mechanisms as part of internal, or intra-party, democracy. The book illuminates these issues through empirically driven chapters explaining changes in the way candidates for parliaments are selected in countries where new parties have emerged and consolidated, or where traditional mainstream parties have adopted new mechanisms of selection affecting (if not challenging) traditional politics. Additionally, therefore, this work will serve as a response to some current debates in the discipline on the consequences of the democratization of party life, relating political participation and representation.

[Link to the publication]

Syriza, Podemos, M5S: the three champions of the angry Southern European voter 
Guillermo Cordero, Lluis Orriols and Eftichia Teperoglou

 

Revista Jurídica de la UAM, 37.

 

The article examines the profile of the electoral basis of the three most successful examples of anti-establishment parties in Southern Europe, namely the Coalition of Radical Left (SYRIZA) in Greece, the Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S) in Italy and Podemos in Spain. These parties share the implementation of a non-right populist discourse rooted in the social-protest movements in each country. Using data from the European Election Study 2014, our analysis reveals that despite the fact that these voters have been described as ‘euro-critical’ and ‘non-ideological’, our main finding is that their electoral support mostly rests on ideology and on the distrust and disapproval of the national establishment.  

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Who are the losers of the economic crisis? Explaining the vote for right-wing populist parties in Europe after the Great Recession
José Rama and Guillermo Cordero

 

Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 48(4): 13-43.

 

Right-wing populist parties (RWPP) have obtained outstanding electoral results during the Great Recession in Europe. While some authors have adopted a macro level approach to explain this success, highlighting the relevance of the context of crisis, others have focused on micro explanations to analyse how the “losers of globalization” (the elderly, less educated, and lower class) comprise the main electoral base of these parties. However, the performance of RWPP has been much better in those countries less affected by the crisis and, in certain contexts, the so-called ‘losers’ of globalization have not been their main electoral base. Using individual data for 12 Western European countries provided by the European Election Studies (2014) database, in this paper we demonstrate that the combination of these two sets of explanations (at the macro and micro levels) is necessary not only for empirical, but also for conceptual reasons to understand the phenomenon. While the general profile of this family of voters tend to be older, less educated and belonging to the lower class, in countries most affected by the crisis the RWPP voters tend to be younger and better educated. 

¿Podemos? Crónica de un éxito inesperado en las elecciones europeas de 2014
Guillermo Cordero y Pablo Christmann

 

In Opinión Pública y Cambio Electoral en España: Claves ante el Reto Europeo y la Crisis Política y Económica. Edited by: Mariano Torcal (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas)

 

El escrutinio de las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo de mayo de 2014 en España arrojó resultados inesperados y extraordinariamente generosos con los partidos más pequeños y jóvenes. Podemos, surgido solo cuatro meses antes de las elecciones, logró convertirse en la cuarta fuerza política con más de un millón de votos. En este capítulo se describirá el contexto en el que se produjo el primer éxito electoral de Podemos y cuál fue la evolución de su electorado desde entonces hasta las Elecciones Generales de 2015. Como se discutirá en las dos primeras secciones, en los comicios europeos coincidieron elementos que facilitaron el ascenso de Podemos tanto en el plano institucional (con el sistema electoral proporcional de dichas elecciones), como en el político (con los dos principales partidos resultando incapaces de dar respuesta a las demandas de los votantes), el económico (con altas tasas de desempleo y desigualdades sociales) y el social (con una ciudadanía interesada en política, movilizada socialmente, y crítica con las instituciones y los partidos tradicionales). Dicho contexto fue el ideal para el enfrentamiento entre las ideas de la “vieja política”, encarnada en los partidos tradicionales y la “nueva política”, cristalizada en Podemos y que se convirtió en el caldo de cultivo ideal para su inesperado éxito en mayo de 2014.    

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2017

The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-party System: The Upsurge
of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the 2015 General Elections

Lluis Orriols and Guillermo Cordero

 

In Crisis Elections, New Contenders and Government Formation. Breaking the Mould in Southern Europe. Edited by: Anna Bosco and Susannah Verney (Routledge). 

 

The 2015 General Election (GE) marked the end of the two-party system that had existed in Spain since the restoration of democracy. Two new parties, ‘Podemos’ and ‘Ciudadanos’ entered the national arena for the first time and together obtained 34.6 percent of the vote. This paper describes this election's context and electoral results by analysing the individual determinants behind the change to the Spanish party system. Our results indicate that economic factors predominantly explain the votes for the traditional parties, the PP and PSOE. On the other hand, political factors help distinguish why some voters remained ‘loyal’ to the traditional parties and others switched to the new formations. While Podemos’ switchers were mainly politically disaffected left-wing voters, electoral support for Ciudadanos came from younger and ideologically moderate voters who had lower levels of political trust.

[Link to the published version

Three Decades of Religious Vote in Europe 
Guillermo Cordero

 

World Political Science,  Doi.: https://doi.org/10.1515/wps-2017-0001.

The social sciences have often claimed the end of religiosity as one explanation for electoral behaviour in Europe. Nevertheless, left and right parties still incorporate religious and moral issues on the agenda in order to distance themselves from their opponents. This article undertakes a comparative study of 34 European democracies and examines the extent to which religious voting has diminished since the eighties. Results point to a sharp decline in the levels of religious vote until the nineties, followed by a revitalization since that time in a third of the countries included in the sample. The analysis also highlights the important role played by the political elite in activating the religious vote.ation, party cohesion, party centralization and corruption, among others.    

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript] 

3rd Quartile

Recruitment and Selection

Xavier Coller, Guillermo Cordero and José Manuel Echavarren

 

In Political Power in Spain: The Multiple Divides between MPs and Citizens.

Edited by: Xavier Coller, Antonio M. Castillo and Fabiola Mota (Palgrave).

 

This chapter focuses on a hardly known matter: how individuals are chosen for the electoral list. The analysis relies on the causation funnel model by Norris (1997) and the inclusiveness and centralization dimensions by Rahart and Hazan (2001) to conclude that the MPs candidates are selected in a centralized and exclusive way; that is to say, far away from the rank-and- le af liates, the activist and supporters at the local level. Loyalty, party involvement and expertise are the main reasons underlying candidate selection for the electoral lists whilst there are signi cant differences among parties.

[Link to the published version

National and Regional Identity 

Xavier Coller, Guillermo Cordero and José Manuel Echavarren

 

In Political Power in Spain: The Multiple Divides between MPs and Citizens.

Edited by: Xavier Coller, Antonio M. Castillo and Fabiola Mota (Palgrave).

 

Drawing from a constructivist approach this chapter analyzes MPs’ collective identities. Despite the obvious differences between parties and territories, most of the MPs show a dual identity (the same as their electors) feeling as Spanish as from their own region. Nevertheless, it is proved that the younger MPs, the more left-wing ones and the regions’ native MPs are more prone to show a territorial identity distant of the Spanish one. Finally, the meaning of Spain like a collective referent is analyzed along with

the relationship between collective identity and nationalism.

[Link to the published version

Is a Corrupt Government Totally Unacceptable?

Guillermo Cordero and  André Blais

 

West European Politics, 40 (4): 645-662.

 

Corrupt governments are not always punished by voters. Under certain circumstances citizens consider voting for the incumbent party even if the party is perceived as corrupt. Using survey data for Spain, we analyse what makes citizens reject (or not) the idea of voting for a corrupt party. Previous research has shown that party identification, ideology and political information play a role in voters’ reactions to corruption. We argue that voters judge corruption in relative terms; what matters is not how corrupt the incumbent party is perceived to be but whether it is deemed to be more corrupt than the other parties. 

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

 

1st Quartile

The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-party System: The Upsurge
of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the 2015 General Elections

Lluis Orriols and Guillermo Cordero

 

South European Society and Politics, 21 (4): 469-492. 

 

The 2015 General Election (GE) marked the end of the two-party system that had existed in Spain since the restoration of democracy. Two new parties, ‘Podemos’ and ‘Ciudadanos’ entered the national arena for the first time and together obtained 34.6 percent of the vote. This paper describes this election's context and electoral results by analysing the individual determinants behind the change to the Spanish party system. Our results indicate that economic factors predominantly explain the votes for the traditional parties, the PP and PSOE. On the other hand, political factors help distinguish why some voters remained ‘loyal’ to the traditional parties and others switched to the new formations. While Podemos’ switchers were mainly politically disaffected left-wing voters, electoral support for Ciudadanos came from younger and ideologically moderate voters who had lower levels of political trust.

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

1st Quartile

Who is Recruiting Our Crew? Contextual Determinants
of MPs Selection

Sandra Bermúdez and Guillermo Cordero

 

Acta Politica, 52(3): 265-285. 

 

This article analyses the contextual determinants of parliamentary elites’ methods of selection. Using survey data from a representative sample of 500 Spanish MPs, we empirically demonstrate that different district characteristics generate different ways of MPs’ selection. Specifically, parties implement more exclusive ways of candidate selection in more competitive districts and in regional chambers. On the contrary, selection processes are more participative at the national level and where electoral competition is low.

[Link to the published version] 

2nd Quartile

2016

 

The Bright Side of the Economic Crisis: The Attribution

of Political Responsibilities in Hard Times

Guillermo Cordero and Ignacio Lago

 

Canadian Journal of Political Science, 49 (1): 151-170.

 

We examine the impact of the current economic crisis on the accuracy of responsibility attribution between levels of government within States. Using individual-level data from Spain, we show that learning about responsibility attribution depends on the saliency of the issue (in our study, unemployment) and economic self-interest. The (unintended) positive consequence of economic crisis is that citizens are now more able to accurately attribute the responsibility for political decisions than some years ago. Learning is particularly significant among those individuals more affected by the economic crisis.

 

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

4th Quartile

Candidate Selection in a Multilevel State: the Case of Spain

Guillermo Cordero, Antonio Jaime-Castillo and Xavier Coller

 

American Behavioral Scientist, 60 (7): 853-868. 

 

The intra-party mechanisms for MPs selection has been only partially analyzed by the literature. Most works focus on parties’ written rules regarding the selection of candidates for the national chamber(s). However, party statutes hide these mainly informal procedures. In this paper we analyze how candidate selection is implemented in parties using survey data for a representative sample of 580 MPs, completed with 58 in-depth interviews of MPs and gatekeepers. With this data we analyze how the selection of candidates is implemented in a multi-level democracy such as Spain.

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

1st Quartile

Reclutamiento y Selección
Xavier Coller, Guillermo Cordero & José M. Echavarren

In El Poder Político en España: Élites y Ciudadanía. Edited by Xavier Coller, Antonio Jaime & Fabiola Mota. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (in press).

 

El interés por el estudio del reclutamiento y la selección de la élite política no es nuevo en las ciencias sociales. Sin embargo, apenas existen análisis empíricos sobre cómo son elegidos los representantes políticos, y se sigue sabiendo poco  acerca de los procesos que llevan a los diputados a formar parte de las cámaras de representación. En este trabajo planteamos estudiar cómo se produce la selección y el reclutamiento de la élite parlamentaria española y los elementos que ayudan a que se produzca. Para ello analizamos las principales rutas de acceso a la carrera parlamentaria, no sólo a través del estudio de sus reglas formales (reglamento de las cámaras o estatutos de los partidos, por ejemplo), sino también utilizando datos de encuesta a parlamentarios para describir los mecanismos informales que los partidos utilizan para elaborar las candidaturas. El capítulo analiza una realidad escasamente abordada en el ámbito español y que tiene profundas consecuencias en las formas de liderazgo y gestión política.

[Link to the published version]

Selecting Candidates in Multilevel Democracies

Guillermo Cordero, Antonio Jaime-Castillo and Xavier Coller

American Behavioral Scientist , 60 (7): 773-780. 

 

The article deals with a timely yet only partially researched topic: the selection of candidates for electoral lists in multilevel democracies. From an international comparative point of view, we explain how, in different countries, MPs are selected using empirical evidence based on surveys and interviews. Countries sampled lead to a comparison of American and European multilevel democracies. The article contributes to a better knowledge of candidate selection while enlightening differences and similarities among countries.  

 

[FREE ACCESS]  

1st Quartile

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 EP Elections in Spain

Guillermo Cordero and José Ramón Montero

 

In The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe. Edited by Hermann Schmitt and Eftichia Teperoglou. Routledge.

 

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) election in Spain took place in a context of deep economic recession and distrust of political institutions. These conditions triggered an unprecedented electoral response through which Podemos, a radical leftist party created shortly before the election, obtained eight per cent of votes and gained electoral momentum thereafter, seriously threatening the two-party-plus system. Using data from a panel survey, our analyses reveal some unexpected findings. The intensity of protest voting and the timing of the contest within the national electoral cycle have had a major impact on national politics – with the possibility of eventually producing a party-system change.

[LINK TO THE PUBLICATION]  

Identidad Nacional y Regional

Xavier Coller, Guillermo Cordero & José M. Echavarren

In El Poder Político en España: Élites y Ciudadanía. Edited by Xavier Coller, Antonio Jaime & Fabiola Mota. Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (in press).

La identidad colectiva es uno de los elementos que ilumina con más intensidad las tensiones territoriales en España, tanto las recientes como las pasadas. Se trata de un fenómeno ampliamente estudiado desde el punto de vista de la ciudadanía, pero raramente centrado en la perspectiva de los políticos. En este capítulo se estudian las bases sociales de la identidad de los parlamentarios españoles y algunos de sus correlatos. Los resultados muestran que las identidades territoriales de los diputados varían en gran medida en función del partido al que pertenece. Esta identidad es mayoritariamente dual (tanto española como de la autonomía) en el caso de PSOE y PP, y más cercana a la autonomía en los partidos nacionalistas y de izquierdas. Sin embargo, no sólo depende de dicho factor. En los análisis aportados se demuestra que los diputados más jóvenes, los nativos y más cercanos a la izquierda son los que se identifican en menor medida con España y más con su autonomía. Pero, ¿qué entienden los diputados por estos conceptos territoriales? (...)

[Link to the published version]

2015

Economic Crisis and Support for Democracy in Europe

Guillermo Cordero and  Pablo Simón

 

West European Politics, 39 (2): 305-325.

 

The study of the impact of the economic crisis on attitudes toward democracy tends to be focused on satisfaction with specific democratic institutions. In this article we expand upon previous research to explore how the current economic crisis can affect core support for democracy as a regime. Based on European Social Survey data for the Eurozone countries, our findings are twofold. Firstly, we show that perceptions of the state of the economy have an impact both on satisfaction and support for democracy. Secondly, we show that citizens’ support for democracy is higher in bailed-out countries. In intervened countries, the more critical citizens and those less satisfied with the outputs of democracy are the stronger advocates of democracy. We argue that it is connected with the tendency of critical citizens in bailed-out countries to blame external agents for the economic situation while increasing the saliency of democratic rules as a reaction to the imposition of unpopular measures. 

 

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

1st Quartile

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014
EP elections in Spain

Guillermo Cordero and José Ramón Montero

 

South European Society and Politics, 20 (3): 357-379.

 

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) election in Spain took place in a context of deep economic recession and distrust of political institutions. These conditions triggered an unprecedented electoral response through which Podemos, a radical leftist party created shortly before the election, obtained eight per cent of votes and gained electoral momentum thereafter, seriously threatening the two-party-plus system. Using data from a panel survey, our analyses reveal some unexpected findings. The intensity of protest voting and the timing of the contest within the national electoral cycle have had a major impact on national politics – with the possibility of eventually producing a party-system change.

 

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2nd Quartile

Cohesion and Candidate Selection in Parliamentary Groups

Guillermo Cordero and Xavier Coller

 

Parliamentary Affairs, 68 (3): 592-615.

 

Previous literature has argued that MPs selected by party elites in a central and exclusive way are more disciplined than those belonging to parties with more inclusive and participative mechanisms of candidate selection. This hypothesis has been usually tested measuring the existence of voting blocs in parliamentary groups (taking for granted that voting blocs are the result of party discipline) and party rules on candidate selection (ignoring how selection process takes place). By using data from a survey of a representative sample of Spanish members of parliaments, we study the impact of candidate selection on how cohesion in parliamentary groups is built. Results show that where nomination for the electoral list rests on party elites, decisions are imposed through discipline. By contrast, parliamentary group cohesion is achieved through deliberative processes of decision-making in more decentralised and inclusive groups.

 

[Link to the published version]    [PDF Accepted Manuscript

1st Quartile

2014

The Activation of the Religious Vote in Spain (1979-2011)

Guillermo Cordero

 

Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 147: 3-20. 

 

Spanish religious indicators have experienced one of the most drastic declines in Europe. The low levels of church attendance and religious denomination contributed to reject the perception of religiosity as a relevant explanatory factor of electoral behavior. However, leaders continued introducing debates related to secular education, divorce and abortion not only during the eighties, but also more recently from 2004 to 2011. The facts encourage us to reconsider the strength of the religious vote. Is the political elite able to mobilize religious voting through the inclusion of such issues in the electoral debate? In this paper I demonstrate that religiosity has been and still is a key element to understand Spanish electoral behavior, especially in those elections in which the political elite has focused the debate on issues related to moral issues.

 

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4th Quartile

4th Quartile

Religiosidad y Voto en 34 Democracias Europeas

Guillermo Cordero

Revista Española de Ciencia Política, 34: 35-65.

 

Social sciences have often claimed the end of religiosity as an explanatory factor of electoral behaviour in Europe. Nevertheless, left and right parties still insert religious and moral issues in the agenda in order to distance themselves from their opponents. This paper shows a comparative study of 34 European democracies examining the extent to which religious voting has diminished since the eighties. Results point to a sharp decline in the levels of religious vote until the nineties, with a revitalization since then in some of the countries of the sample. The analysis also highlights the important role played by the political elite on the activation of religious vote.

 

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4th Quartile

De los Clivajes Sociales al Voto Religioso en Europa

Guillermo Cordero

Revista de Estudios Políticos, 164: 213-236.

 

Despite the popularity of religious voting models during the sixties and seventies, the intense process of secularization in Europe contributed to insist on the end of religiosity as a predictor of electoral behavior in Europe. The chaos in these works resulted in a lack of agreement on the theoretical models, the definition of the concepts and also its empirical analysis. Considering the resurgence of studies pointing to the re-emergence of the religious vote in Europe, this analysis seeks to classify the existing studies in order to review the main contributions and also highlight the most widespread gaps in the field. 

 

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4th Quartile

Identidades de Élites Políticas y Votantes en Cataluña

Sandra Bermúdez & Guillermo Cordero

 

Quaderns del l'ICPS

 

En Cataluña existe un renovado interés por conocer el origen de la activación del debate nacionalista. Las encuestas de opinión muestran en los últimos años un incremento en el porcentaje de catalanes que apoyan aumentar el nivel actual de autonomía o la independencia de Cataluña. ¿Pero los partidos reflejan los cambios en las actitudes e identidades de sus votantes o las dirigen? Desgraciadamente, no disponemos de datos suficientemente precisos para responder a esta pregunta, pero a continuación presentaremos algunos elementos que contribuyen a aportar un poco de luz a la cuestión (...)

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2012

European Parliament Elections in Spain: on the Proportionality and Representation of Nationalist and Regionalist Parties

Guillermo Cordero & José Ramóm Montero

 

In Elections to the European Parliament as a Challenge for Democracy. Edited by  Elzbieta Kuzèlewska and Dariuusz Kloza. European Integration and Democracy Series, Vol. 2.  

 

Ever since the first elections for the European Parliament (EP) held in Spain in 1987, the debate about the electoral system has been inexorably linked to criticisms from nationalist and regionalist parties. Since the whole country forms a large single-district, their arguments lie on the unfairness of the electoral system for allegedly over-representing major parties and penalizing much smaller parties, particularly those whose electorates are limited to only a specific region of the Spanish territory. According to their claims, the current system forces nationalist parties to join occasional and often unnatural electoral coalitions with parties belonging to very disparate families. For this reason, nationalist parties have been demanding the substitution of the current single-district model by several regional districts whose borders should match those of the Spanish regions (...)

 

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Religiosidad y Comportamiento Electoral en Europa

Guillermo Cordero

 

Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

 

Habitualmente la literatura ha considerado que la religiosidad ha perdido fuerza como antecedente del votoen Europa. Esto ha sido así a pesar de que los partidos de izquierda y derecha siguen insertando temasreligiosos y morales en el debate político para diferenciarse de sus oponentes. En este trabajo se llevaa cabo un estudio comparado de 34 democracias europeas con el fin de desentrañar en qué medida elvoto religioso ha perdido intensidad desde los años ochenta. Los resultados ofrecidos apuntan haciauna marcada caída en los niveles de voto religioso hasta los años noventa, aunque también señalan unarecuperación de la vitalidad del fenómeno desde entonces en una parte importante de los países incluidosen la muestra. También se ha mostrado el importante papel desempeñado por la élite política en laactivación del voto religioso.

 

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¿Quiénes Son y Cómo Votan los Españoles de Izquierdas?

Guillermo Cordero & Irene Martín

 

Editorial Catarata. 

 

En este estudio se muestra cómo la ideología es uno de los pocos factores que han influido en el comportamiento electoral de los españoles en todas las elecciones que han tenido lugar durante el periodo democrático. Es más, hoy en día parece ser el factor que más influye en la orientación del voto de los españoles. España sigue siendo uno de los países europeos donde más ciudadanos se consideran de izquierdas. Si se tienen en cuenta estas dos circunstancias, el elevado porcentaje de españoles que se considera de izquierdas y la importancia del factor ideológico, resulta relevante realizar un estudio detallado sobre las características diferenciales de los españoles de izquierdas.

 

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Elecciones Europeas en España: Partidos Nacionalistas
y Circunscripción Única

José Ramón Montero & Guillermo Cordero

 

ARI, Real Instituto Elcano

Desde hace 20 años, la celebración de las sucesivas elecciones al Parlamento Europeo (PE) ha venido inexorablemente acompañada de las críticas de los partidos regionalistas y nacionalistas al diseño de la circunscripción única. Estos partidos defienden su sustitución por un sistema de distritos autonómicos cuyas fronteras coincidan con las de las actuales comunidades autónomas. Aducen que la competencia electoral entre los grandes partidos nacionales y los mucho más pequeños de ámbito autonómico es desigual y penaliza gravemente a los segundos, forzándoles a firmar coaliciones electorales siempre circunstanciales y en muchas ocasiones antinaturales (...)

 

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